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Natural Gas Supply to Outstrip Demand this Summer

April 1, 2015 By Josh Kessler

A forecast published in Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) and summarized on Genscape’s news webpage suggests that US natural gas supply will exceed demand this summer. Supplies should increase by 3.1 Bcf per day compared with 2014. Genscape analyst Rick Margolin forecasts that production will be 3.3 Bcf per day higher, slightly offset by a 0.2 Bcf per day drop in Canadian imports. On the demand side, retirement of coal plants and hydropower generation, combined with a minor increase in exports to Mexico, should lead to a total increase of 2.7 Bcf per day of demand. Total summer demand (excluding Alaska and Hawaii) will be about 54 Bcf per day.

A March 30 post in NGI and summarized by Genscape notes that April wholesale gas contracts settled at $2.590 per MMBtu. Genscape forecasts that inventories will reach a record of 3,998 Bcf, exceeding the previous record (set in 2012) by 1.7 percent.

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