Projected Electric Capacity Additions Are Below Recent Historical Levels
In the coming decades, additions to US electricity generation capacity are expected to be lower than in the recent past. In the Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case, which reflects current laws and policies and does not include EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan, total generating capacity (including end-use generators like rooftop solar panels) increases from 1,065 GW in 2013 to 1,261 GW in 2040. The amount of capacity added is more than three times the amount that is expected to retire, with 287 GW added and 90 GW retired.
Capacity additions through 2017, much of which are under construction, average about 17 GW per year and about half are non-hydro renewable plants (mainly wind and solar) prompted by federal tax incentives and renewable portfolio standards. From 2018 to 2024, projected capacity additions average less than 4 GW per year, as earlier planned additions are sufficient to meet most growth in electricity demand. From 2025 to 2040, average annual capacity additions – primarily natural gas-fired and renewable technologies – average 12 GW per year. By comparison, annual additions from 2000 to 2013 averaged 26 GW per year.
Natural gas-fired plants account for 58 percent of the capacity additions through 2040, while renewables provide 38 percent of the additions, and nuclear 3 percent. Natural gas-fired combined-cycle plants are relatively inexpensive to build in comparison with new coal, nuclear or renewable technologies, and are generally more efficient to operate than existing steam plants that may be powered by natural gas, oil or coal.
Renewable additions are aided in the near term by federal tax credits, and in the longer term by rising natural gas prices and state renewable targets. The 109 GW of renewable capacity additions in the Reference case are primarily wind (49 GW) and solar (48 GW) technologies, including 31 GW of solar photovoltaic installations from rooftop and other distributed generation installations.
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