According to a new report, the single largest driver globally for the adoption of LED lighting may be China’s 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015).
The research comes from Advanced Energy Economy (AEE), which commissioned Navigant Research to prepare “The Advanced Energy Now 2014 Market Report,” drawing on more than 60 previously published Navigant Research studies on specific industry categories. Navigant says data should be viewed as a conservative assessment of advanced energy market size.
China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the agency responsible for implementing the efficiency goals, has stipulated that the proportion of LED lights sold in the country will top 20 percent by 2015. That would make China the largest consumer of LED lighting in the world.
The report also noted that the global market for Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) has grown almost 25 percent from just under $1.9 billion in 2011, to an estimated $2.4 billion in 2013. Growth in the US market over this period was 27 percent, from $737.2 million in 2011 to an estimated $935.4 million in 2013. Navigant Research forecasts that BEMS will grow to an annual market of $5.6 billion globally in 2020. The market will be concentrated in North America and Europe, though the Asia Pacific market is growing at the fastest pace.
Other Summary Findings – US Market
- In the United States, the advanced energy market was an estimated $168.9 billion in 2013 – 15 percent of the global market, up from 11 percent in 2011.
- Excluding wind, US advanced energy revenue grew 18 percent from 2011 to 2012 and 14 percent from 2012 to 2013.
- Wind energy suffered a severe, $23 billion revenue downward swing between 2012 and 2013, due to policy uncertainty around the federal Production Tax Credit (PTC).
- Solar PV revenue grew steadily over this two-year period, up 27 percent from 2011 to 2012, and 54 percent from 2012 to 2013. Two-year growth, from $8.2 billion to $16.2 billion, was 97 percent. This revenue growth is even more impressive given the continued declines in total installed prices for PV over that period. In 2013, the United States accounted for an estimated 18 percent of global revenue for solar PV, a doubling of its global market share from 2011 – making the United States the third largest market for solar PV in the world.
- Revenue from advanced building products and technologies increased 11 percent from 2011 to 2012 and 12 percent from 2012 to 2013, for two-year growth of 24 percent.