Navigant: US Gas Production to Grow 52% by 2035

A new report from Navigant Research, the North American Natural Gas Market Outlook, Year-End 2014, projects that US natural gas production will grow from 72 Bcf per day in 2015 to 110 Bcf per day by 2035, a 52 percent increase. Gas production will expand in many areas, but particularly the Marcellus Shale that spans New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. The main near-term constraint on production is pipeline infrastructure, which has been slow to develop in the densely populated Northeast.

Price Impacts

  • Henry Hub prices should stabilize over the near to mid-term and grow steadily over the long-term, though they will not reach the price levels seen over the last decade.
  • New gas transportation infrastructure will come online around 2017 in the Northeast, relieving pipeline bottlenecks and bringing prices down to levels seen in other parts of the country.
  • Domestic demand should grow to about 90 Bcf per day by 2035, driven largely by electricity demand. If supplies reach 110 Bcf per day, this implies exports will grow to 20 Bcf per day.
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